Key Findings

Does signing a free agent from a different division or conference produce stronger results than signing within your own division?

The research question comes from behavioral economics work on whether player movement itself - independent of the player's skill level - changes performance outcomes. Applied to NFL free agency: does it matter whether a team signs a player from across the conference, or does geography have no effect on win probability?

Across ten seasons of NFL data, no single geography type consistently produces stronger win outcomes than others. After removing re-signings, cross-division, cross-conference, and same-division moves produce nearly identical average win probability changes — the three groups differ by less than 0.002 win probability points, against a within-group standard deviation of 0.060. Cross-conference ranked highest in 0 of 10 seasons. Where a player came from does not reliably predict how much a team improves.

Note: Geography classifications require a known prior team for each signing. Moves where the player's prior team is unavailable are excluded from this comparison. Sample sizes vary by season - treat these figures as directional, not definitive.

Confidence on this table is aligned to the free-agency question, using all-events and known-scope checks rather than trades-only robustness. Low confidence means the directional signal is still exploratory. Explore geography by season ->

Do teams that spend more in free agency win more games than the year before?

The question every front office faces every March: is spending big in free agency worth it? This analysis compares total free agent contract value per team per season against their actual win change versus the prior year.

The short answer is no - not reliably. In most seasons the team that spent the most did not produce the biggest win gain. Roster construction decisions - which positions are targeted and how efficiently - appear to matter more than total dollars spent.

Win change is season-ending wins minus prior season-ending wins. Spend is total inbound free agent contract value. Upcoming seasons show spend and move context only until games are played. Explore spending by team and season ->