The Mallory Group
A contract timing study on NHL skater usage and value outcomes.
Do NHL skaters perform differently around contract timing, and does this vary by player type.
This project tests whether walk-year changes are muted in aggregate but meaningful inside player buckets.
The archetype spectrum runs from overpay to market rate to discount. It is a spectrum, not a fixed label.
How to read this site: start with findings, then review methods for assumptions and limits.
Headline finding
Teams that re-sign their own players deliver more time on ice per dollar of cap share than teams that sign new players from elsewhere.
The loyalty tax does not exist in this NHL contract sample. The data shows the opposite. A loyalty discount appears.
Key numbers
Same-team mean residual: +0.32 (n=1,115). New-team mean residual: -0.45 (n=592).
Tier-controlled same-team effect: +0.70 minutes per game-equivalent residual (p<0.0001).
Sources: retention_overpay_comparison.csv and retention_overpay_model.csv.
Walk-year preview
The aggregate walk-year effect is muted, but key archetypes diverge.
Overall post-signing TOI change is +0.36. Declining veterans spike before signing, then regress.
The question
Who plays above or below contract expectations around signing windows.
Contract timing and usage outcomes by archetype.
The approach
Expected versus actual usage at contract level, then bucketed comparisons.
Focus on skaters and interpretable group effects.
The data
Contract history, skater performance, bios, and captaincy records.
Derived outputs only. No raw source data mirror in the explorer.